Oscars 2025 Best Picture Predictions: Nominees & Winner

Now that the dust has settled following the 2024 ceremony, it’s time to turn attention toward the 2025 Oscars and the movies that are competing to secure a Best Picture nomination and campaign for a win. As surprising nominees and winners at the 2024 Oscars proved, predicting the 2025 results so far ahead of time is no easy task. However, some serious contenders for awards season have emerged as Oscars 2025 predictions for all categories begin to take shape. This includes a strong group of movies competing for one of ten Best Picture nominations.

Even heading into the 2025 Oscars season, some movies were looked at early on as major contenders. Dune: Part Two is eligible after being delayed from its original 2023 release date, while new movies from Luca Guadagnino, Yorgos Lanthimios, Sean Baker, Edward Berger, Ridley Scott, Steve McQueen, and Clint Eastwood were looked at as contenders to watch out for. Of course, awards season always has a few surprises that gain momentum and end up in the Best Picture race. Ahead of the official nomination announcement on January 17, 2025, Screen Rant‘s predicted Best Picture nominees and winners look like this.

Other Movies Still Contending For Best Picture

While we can only predict that ten movies will get nominations for Best Picture, there’s still time for the lineup to shift. A handful of films are still in contention and hoping to emerge as awards season continues. Movies like Hard Truths, A Real Pain, Nickel Boys, and The Piano Lesson are looking to continue the strong momentum that is building in their favor. Meanwhile, international films like I’m Still Here, All We Imagine as Light, and The Seed of the Sacred Fig could break through. Nosferatu and Babygirl are also hoping their late 2024 releases bolster their position.

10 The Room Next Door

Release Date: December 20, 2024

Pedro Almodóvar’s new movie The Room Next Door looks to be a potential contender for a Best Picture nomination at the 2025 Oscars. The film stars former Oscar winners Tilda Swinton and Julianne Moore and marks Almodóvar’s first feature-length film made in English. That change is notable considering his track record with the Academy in the International Feature Film category. He won the category in 2000 with All About My Mother and was nominated again in 2020 for Pain and Glory. But, The Room Next Door could mark his first Best Picture nomination.

Early reviews for The Room Next Door have been mostly positive out of screenings at Toronto and Venice, which is why the movie has some buzz for this Oscar nomination, especially after winning the Golden Lion at Venice. However, they also reveal a problem with its chances to win. Most point out that The Room Next Door is not among Pedro Almodóvar’s best movies. The Academy is also known to give out makeup Oscars to honor people who have done better work before and weren’t properly recognized. Perhaps that narrative could propel Almodóvar’s film further.

9 Gladiator II

Release: November 22, 2024

Considering Ridley Scott’s mixed critical and commercial performance in recent years, Gladiator II may not seem like an obvious 2025 Oscars candidate. However, despite the failure of projects like Napoleon, the movie may yet succeed. This is in no small part thanks to the legacy of its illustrious predecessor. The original Gladiator won five Academy Awards, including Best Picture and Best Actor. This suggests that Scott’s movie does have the potential to be a major contender at the 2025 ceremony. This is especially true, given the involvement of illustrious performers like Paul Mescal and Oscars heavyweights such as Denzel Washington.

Hope is not lost on Gladiator 2 getting a Best Picture nomination, but it’s not a major contender anymore. The film’s mixed-to-positive reception hurt its cause. Its notable omission from the 2025 Golden Globe nominations for Best Motion Picture in Drama did not bode well either, considering the award show’s history of favoring movies like Gladiator 2. Ridley Scott’s status in Hollywood and the affinity for the original film could still help Gladiator 2‘s case for a nomination. However, it seems highly unlikely that it can realistically win Best Picture, even if it gets a nomination.

8 Dune: Part Two

Release: March 1, 2024

After an extended delay, Denis Villeneuve’s awe-inspiring Dune sequel missed out on eligibility for the 2024 Oscars. Considering its cultural impact, many felt that this was a missed opportunity. However, following huge critical and commercial success, the movie established itself as a firm favorite for the next round of awards despite releasing long before other competitors. Concluding the story of Paul Atreides and his transition from outlaw to emperor, the movie expertly weaves epic scope with a thoughtful discussion of imperialism, religion, and romance. Villeneuve is already tipped as a Best Director candidate to aid its Best Picture credentials.

History is also on Dune: Part Two‘s side to receive a Best Picture Oscar nomination in 2025. Villeneuve’s original movie received a nomination in 2022, but it did not win. His sci-fi film Arrival also got a Best Picture nomination. With the Academy Awards voting body clear fans of his work, Dune 2 arguably surpassing what he did in the first film should enable it to get into the 2025 Best Picture race – even if its odds of winning might be lower. The film’s Best Motion Picture – Drama nomination at the Golden Globes reaffirms its contending status.

7 Sing Sing

Release: July 12, 2024

After debuting at the Toronto International Film Festival in 2023, Sing Sing established itself as a genuine awards contender by ticking several popular Oscars boxes. The movie is based on the real-life story of the Rehabilitation Through the Arts program at Sing Sing Correctional Facility. Within this context, it uses a combined cast of professional actors, including former Oscar nominee Colman Domingo, and former inmates to recreate the production of an original musical, Breakin’ the Mummy’s Code.

The movie’s unique premise and production, together with extremely positive reviews and an intriguing biographical element, make it a serious contender for Best Picture in 2025. There is no debate about the film’s quality and favorable reception from audiences and critics, and there has thankfully been no signs of a decline in appreciation for Sing Sing months after its theatrical release. A24’s plans to re-release it and give it a full FYC campaign show it has the studio’s support and could gain momentum as the season continues.

6 A Complete Unknown

Release: December 25, 2024

James Mangold’s Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown is an expected contender for the 2025 Oscars Best Picture race. Starring Timothée Chalamet as the iconic musician, the movie will look to join the list of music biopics that received Best Picture nominations. The Academy shows plenty of favor to true stories, especially those that revolve around massive pop culture figures and have the kind of star power in front of and behind the camera as A Complete Unknown.

James Mangold previously got a Best Picture nomination for a true story movie with Ford v. Ferrari

Although A Complete Unknown has still yet to even come out at this point, the early reactions to Mangold’s movie have been extremely positive. That’s not a surprise considering Searchlight’s confidence in the film by giving it a Christmas 2024 release date. A Complete Unknown is already on voters’ radars and can now be one of the late-year, splashy titles to enter the race in full once it comes out. And with Searchlight making the film its top priority for the 2025 Oscars season, there is a chance of it climbing higher and emerging as a legitimate contender to win.

5 Wicked

Release Date: November 22, 2024

Wicked burst onto the scene as a very real Oscars contender in many categories, including Best Picture. The 2024 adaptation of the first half of the acclaimed Broadway musical has garnered nearly universal praise from critics and audiences alike. Wicked is one of the biggest crowd-pleasers of the year, not to mention one of the biggest box office performers. With its impressive musical numbers, costumes, production, and stellar performances from Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande, Wicked has quickly become considered a shoo-in for a Best Picture nomination.

Musicals do not have the best history of winning Best Picture, but that could be different this year. Wicked is already surprising with its precursor wins, most notably with its Best Film win from the National Board of Review. Now that it also has a Golden Globes nomination for Best Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical, there’s a world where it beats movies that are considered stronger Best Picture contenders right now – like Anora and Emilia Pérez. If it does, the possibility of Wicked winning Best Picture could become much more real.

4 The Brutalist

Release Date: December 20, 2024

The Brutalist has emerged as a major contender for the Best Picture Oscar in 2025. The three-and-a-half-hour historical epic left a major impression on audiences following its premiere at Venice and subsequent showings at Toronto. It was enough to get A24 to acquire the project, which hails from director Brady Corbet and stars Oscar-winner Adrien Brody and Oscar-nominee Felicity Jones, and give it a late December 2024 release date.

While the end-of-year release date can hurt films at times, that is less of a concern for The Brutalist thanks to its reception at festivals. The movie is already mounting support in many other categories – like Best Director, Best Editing, Best Actor, and Best Supporting Actor – and that should only bolster its Best Picture potential. Its Golden Globes nomination helps in that area, too. A24 is no stranger to turning movies into Best Picture contenders either. The Brutalist will now look to join Moonlight and Everything Everywhere All At Once as A24’s Best Picture winners.

3 Emilia Pérez

Release: November 1, 2024

Winner of the Jury Prize at the Cannes Film Festival, Emilia Pérez is a boundary-pushing contender for Oscars glory. Starring Zoe Saldaña, Karla Sofía Gascón, and Selena Gomez, the movie mixes musical sensibilities with the story of a cartel leader undergoing sex reassignment surgery with the help of a disaffected lawyer. With original songs and virtuoso performances across the board, the movie quickly established an impressive reputation.

Although its content may, in some years, have been considered too unconventional for the Oscars, there are other indicators that Emilia Pérez is on track to succeed. Not only was it nominated for a Palme d’Or, but the movie’s combined cast received the Best Actress award as a collective ensemble. After finishing as a runner-up for the People’s Choice Award at TIFF, Emilia Pérez is building a necessary resume to be a Best Picture winner. There’s support for nominations in Best Actress, Best Supporting Actress, Best Director, and more if voters don’t share the more mixed general response.

2 Conclave

Release: October 25, 2024

Based on the best-selling novel by author Robert Harris, Conclave combines a stacked cast with a gripping story – potentially creating the ideal Best Picture formula. Featuring the likes of Ralph Fiennes, Stanley Tucci, John Lithgow, and Isabella Rossellini, the movie concerns a Papal election and an intriguing mystery. Not only does the talent aligned in front of the camera contain multiple Academy Award nominees, but Conclave is also directed by Academy Award-winner Edward Berger, whose previous project, All Quiet On The Western Front, won the Best International Feature Film award in 2023.

The drama looks to be in a good position to get a Best Picture nomination, as most concerns about the unexpected tone noted in some Conclave reviews negatively impacting its chances have faded. It’s an old-fashioned drama-thriller that is racking up necessary nominations at the Golden Globes, AFI, and more. With Berger’s sharp directing and Fiennes’ performance putting him in consideration for a 2025 Oscars Best Actor nomination, Conclave is a very serious threat to win Best Picture. However, since Focus Features has never won the Best Picture Oscar despite 12 previous nominations, Conclave will have to make history.

1 Anora

Release Date: October 18, 2024

Arguably the most anticipated movie to come out of Cannes 2024, Anora is the clear frontrunner for the Oscars and our predicted Best Picture winner. An atypical romance that shines a light on the world of sex work, Anora has enjoyed critical acclaim – receiving a 10-minute standing ovation from festival-goers after its premiere. Given this reaction, it’s unsurprising that the movie won the 2024 Palme d’Or. This success positioned the film to continue riding high once Neon boarded the film as a distributor and awards campaign partner.

Neon has a solid track record with the Oscars, including helping push Parasite to be the Best Picture winner in 2020 after it also was the Palme d’Or winner. The studio will look to give Anora a similar campaign and position it as the film to beat. Currently, Neon has done just that. Nominations are expected for the film across many categories, with Mikey Madison’s Best Actress odds looking strong. It’s already been recognized by the Golden Globes, NBR, Gotham Awards, Film Independent Spirit Awards, AFI, and plenty of critics groups, so the Oscars should be next.