Now That We Have Our Nominees, Who’s Going to Win?

Now That We Have Our Nominees, Who’s Going to Win?

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The Super Bowl of cinema is upon us. Welcome to Collider’s FYC hub, your best resource for Oscars 2025 predictions. Here, Senior Producer Perri Nemiroff keeps you up to date on the leading contenders based on her knowledge of industry trends and whispers, and her own personal thoughts and instincts. Remember to come back often for updates! The odds are always changing.

Update: January 23, 2025

Today’s the day! The 2025 Oscar nominations are in, and while there are some surprises in the mix, nothing’s out of left field enough to warrant being dubbed a “snub.” Yes, industry icons like Angelina Jolie and Nicole Kidman missed out on Best Actress, but the writing was on the wall there. Yes, Daniel Craig didn’t get into the Best Actor category, but it was quite clear that Sebastian Stan was a formidable contender for The Apprentice and/or A Different Man. And yes, Pamela Anderson gained momentum courtesy of her Golden Globe and SAG nominations, but that the five who ultimately got the nominations were ahead in the Oscar race.

Of the categories covered below, the one with the most twists and turns — but again, nothing wholly unpredictable — is Best Supporting Actress. As expected, Zoe Saldaña and Ariana Grande, but at this point in the race, they were the only two who felt like locks. The other nominees, Isabella Rossellini, Felicity Jones and Monica Barbaro, were all very much in the running going into Oscar announcement day, but so were Danielle Deadwyler, Selena Gomez, Margaret Qualley, and Jamie Lee Curtis. I’m willing to bet this particular vote was quite close.

One of the biggest treats of the day for this horror lover? Seeing the genre so well represented at the Academy Awards. Not only did The Substance walk away with five nominations, including a Best Director nomination for Coralie Fargeat, but Robert EggersNosferatu also scored four nominations of its own.

Given the Academy played within the bounds of predictions for nominations, for the most part, it looks like this awards season is staying the course and giving us an especially exciting year to try to predict with very few runaway favorites and several stacked and extremely close races.

BEST PICTURE

Current Frontrunner: Wicked

Cynthia Erivo and Arianna Grande posing as Elphaba and Glinda in the 'Wicked' poster
Image via Universal Pictures

BEST DIRECTOR

Current Frontrunner: Brady Corbet

Brady Corbet on the set of Vox Lux.
Image via NEON

RANK

FILM

DIRECTOR

CHANGE

1

The Brutalist

Brady Corbet

2

Anora

Sean Baker

3

Emilia Pérez

Jacques Audiard

4

The Substance

Coralie Fargeat

5

A Complete Unknown

James Mangold

BEST ACTRESS

Current Frontrunner: Demi Moore

Elisabeth Sparkle, played by actor Demi Moore, stares at herself in the mirror in The Substance.
Image via Mubi

RANK

FILM

ACTRESS

CHANGE

1

The Substance

Demi Moore

2

Wicked

Cynthia Erivo

3

Anora

Mikey Madison

4

Emilia Pérez

Karla Sofía Gascón

5

I’m Still Here

Fernando Torres

BEST ACTOR

Current Frontrunner: Ralph Fiennes

Ralph Fiennes' profile looking somber in Conclave
Image via Focus Features

RANK

FILM

ACTOR

CHANGE

1

Conclave

Ralph Fiennes

2

The Brutalist

Adrien Brody

3

Sing Sing

Colman Domingo

4

A Complete Unknown

Timothée Chalamet

5

The Apprentice

Sebastian Stan

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Current Frontrunner: Zoe Saldaña

Zoë Saldaña dances in a red suit in a dark room around tables of people in Jacques Audiard's Emilia Pérez.
Image via Netflix

RANK

FILM

ACTRESS

CHANGE

1

Emilia Pérez

Zoe Saldaña

2

Wicked

Ariana Grande

3

Conclave

Isabella Rossellini

4

The Brutalist

Felicity Jones

5

A Complete Unknown

Monica Barbaro

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Current Frontrunner: Kieran Culkin

Kieran Culkin in 'A Real Pain'
Image via Searchlight

RANK

FILM

ACTOR

CHANGE

1

A Real Pain

Kieran Culkin

2

Anora

Yura Borisov

3

A Complete Unknown

Edward Norton

4

The Brutalist

Guy Pearce

5

The Apprentice

Jeremy Strong

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Current Frontrunner: The Wild Robot

Roz holding Brightbill in her hand in The Wild Robot
Image via Universal Pictures

RANK

FILM

Studio

CHANGE

1

The Wild Robot

DreamWorks Animation

2

Flow

Janus Films/Sideshow

3

Inside Out 2

Pixar

4

Memoir of a Snail

IFC Films

5

Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

Netflix

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Current Frontrunner: Anora

Anora - 2024 - poster
Image via Neon

RANK

FILM

WRITER(S)

CHANGE

1

Anora

Sean Baker

2

The Brutalist

Brady Corbet & Mona Fastvold

3

A Real Pain

Jesse Eisenberg

4

The Substance

Coralie Fargeat

5

September 5

Tim Fehlbaum & Moritz Binder

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Current Frontrunner: Conclave

Ralph Fiennes wears papal finery while walking away from men in similar attire in Conclave
Image via Focus Features

RANK

FILM

WRITER(S)

CHANGE

1

Conclave

Peter Straughan

2

Emilia Pérez

Jacques Audiard, Thomas Bidegain & Nicolas Livecchi

3

Nickel Boys

Joslyn Barnes & RaMell Ross

4

Sing Sing

Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar

5

A Complete Unknown

James Mangold and Jay Cocks

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