It is matchday 12 in the Women’s Super League, and we are hoping for as much action and drama as possible to follow last weekend’s jam-packed schedule.
The first weekend back after the winter break certainly did not disappoint, with a cracker of a Manchester derby, and goals galore from Arsenal and Chelsea, really making it quite the weekend of football.
Chelsea continued their march at the top, staying six points clear of the chasing pack. Arsenal were the big winners, moving into second spot by capitalising on one of the most exciting Manchester derbies in WSL history.
Ella Toone, back from a calf injury, scored her first-ever derby goal, bagging a hat-trick as Man Utd put Man City to the sword 4-2 at the Etihad Stadium. That leaves United in third, only trailing Arsenal on goal difference.
At the other end of the table, Everton picked up a valuable point against Aston Villa to continue to inch away from the drop zone. Crystal Palace, Leicester City and West Ham all lost and remain the bottom three.
So what will matchday 12 have in store for us, and what does the Opta supercomputer predict will happen as we look forward to a table-topping clash as Chelsea host Arsenal?
ASTON VILLA V MANCHESTER CITY
After what could be the end of their title challenge last week, losing to Man Utd in the derby and falling further behind Chelsea, who remain in top spot, Man City will be looking to get back to winning ways as they travel to Aston Villa.
City have lost three of their last four WSL games (W1), as many defeats as across their previous 30 league matches (W25 D2 L3). The Citizens could lose three in a row in the top-flight for the second time after also doing so in September and October 2021.
However, the Opta supercomputer has them as favourites to win at 71% in this match, while giving the home side only a 12.8% chance, with the draw more likely at 16.1% than a Villa win.
This weekend will mark a special milestone for the Villa faithful and will be Villa’s 100th game in the WSL. Only one of the last five teams to celebrate the milestone match have won: Man Utd beat Leicester City 1-0 in April 2024 (D2 L2).
City were calamitous last time out in defence and committed five errors leading to shots and two errors leading to goals in their defeat to Man Utd last time out in the WSL, as many errors resulting in a shot as they suffered across their previous 34 league games combined.
The Citizens have their own milestone to celebrate this weekend as this will be Gareth Taylor’s 100th game in the WSL. Of managers to take charge of 20+ matches in the competition, only Joe Montemurro (75.7%) has a better win rate than the Englishman (72.7% – P99 W72 D10 L17).
Villa will be looking to take advantage of a City side that seem low in confidence, especially Rachel Daly. Since her WSL debut for Villa in September 2022, only Khadija Shaw (50) has scored more goals in the top-flight than her (35). She has also scored in both of her two home league appearances against City (three goals).
CHELSEA V ARSENAL
This tie could help decide the title race in the WSL, and if Arsenal have any aspirations of challenging Chelsea and winning the league, they must get a victory on Sunday. The lunchtime kick-off should be a feast of football.
It is the derby we all love, and it is also the most played fixture in WSL history with the Blues winning 12 of the previous 28 meetings between the pair and the Gunners picking up 10 wins (six draws).
Chelsea won the early bragging rights this season by defeating Arsenal 2-1 at the Emirates Stadium, leading Jonas Eidevall to vacate his position as the Arsenal manager. New head coach Renee Slegers has been a revelation for the Gunners, but can she beat Chelsea?
They will be hoping to buck the trend and beat Chelsea away as they have failed to win any of their last five away WSL games against the Blues (D1 L4), since winning 5-0 at Kingsmeadow in October 2018 under Montemurro.
Chelsea have won 10 of their 11 WSL games this season (D1), the joint-quickest a side has reached double figures for victories in a season, along with Arsenal in both 2018-19 and 2019-20. Only the Gunners in the 2019-20 campaign have won 11 of their opening 12 matches (L1).
So how does the supercomputer see this one play out? The simulations do not pull up any surprises and have Bompastor’s side at 60.3% for the win, leaving Arsenal an 18.9% chance of victory and the draw at 20.8%.
Wanting to make her mark on the tie is Arsenal’s Alessia Russo, who has scored in each of her last six WSL appearances and could be the fourth player in the competition’s history to net in seven or more consecutive outings after Bethany England (nine in February 2020), Beth Mead (seven in August 2015) and Sam Kerr (seven in April 2022).
CRYSTAL PALACE V TOTTENHAM
Tottenham beat Crystal Palace 4-0 in the Eagles’ first-ever WSL game back in September and Spurs will now be looking to achieve a league double over a newly promoted team for the third time in the last four campaigns (also v Leicester in 2021-22 and Bristol City in 2023-24).
Palace have not had the success they would have liked in their debut season. They have picked up just one point and scored only one goal in their five WSL home games (D1 L4), with only Yeovil Town winning fewer points (0) and no side scoring fewer goals after as many matches on home turf in the competition (Notts County also one goal).
The supercomputer does not give them much hope of that home form improving with only a 29.8% chance of a home win and 24.8% of a draw. The model suggests Spurs should comfortably win this one at 45.4%.
Palace are desperate for a ray of hope in their WSL survival and new signing Clarissa Larisey may provide that. She scored 12 goals in 12 Scottish Women’s Premier League appearances for Celtic.
In 2022-23, she also scored against Chelsea for her previous club, BK Hacken, in the 2023-24 UEFA Women’s Champions League group stage. She could be the quality they need to pick up points and turn the tide.
WEST HAM V EVERTON
West Ham beat Palace 5-2 at home on MD9 before losing 5-0 to Chelsea last time out on MD11; that is the first time in WSL history a team has scored five goals at home and then conceded five goals in their next home match.
Everton (10 points) got a valuable point at home last time out and will want to beat West Ham (eight points), who sit just one place below them in the table. The supercomputer has this tie as the closest one of the round.
The simulations indicate that West Ham should edge this one with a 41.2% chance of winning. However, the Toffees are hot on their heels with 32.2% and the draw at 26.7%.
West Ham have made the fewest changes to their starting line-ups (11) and used fewer players (19) than any other team so far in the 2024-25 WSL, so it will be a surprise if Rehanne Skinner opts for too much change here.
LEICESTER CITY V LIVERPOOL
Leicester City have won four points from their last three WSL home games (W1 D1 L1), more than across their previous eight matches (three points – W1 L7). They will be looking to continue this run of form as they welcome Liverpool on Sunday.
Matt Beard’s side were unbeaten in eight consecutive WSL away games (W6 D2) before losing their final two of 2024 to Everton (1-0) and Man Utd (4-0); the Reds have not lost three straight on the road in the same top-flight campaign since January 2020 under Victoria Jepson.
The supercomputer projects Liverpool will be the front-runners in this tie with a 44.1% chance of winning. The Foxes will not lose hope though, as they are given a 30.8% chance of earning three points and 25.1% of a draw.
Leicester, however, have failed to score in eight of their 11 WSL games this season, with only Yeovil Town in 2017-18 (11) ever going goalless in more matches through their opening 11 games of a campaign.
MANCHESTER UNITED V BRIGHTON
After a landmark derby victory over Man City, the Red Devils will want to ensure they follow that result up with another victory. United could win four consecutive WSL games for the first time since October 2023 (eight in a row).
However, Brighton will be no pushovers and have been one of the surprise packages of the WSL 2024-25 season so far.
Despite their good start though, Brighton are on their longest winless run of the season (D1 L2), while they could lose four consecutive away league games for the first time since October 2022.
Nikita Parris became the fourth player to score in more than 50 different WSL games last time out, along with Bethany England (60), Beth Mead (56) and Vivianne Miedema (55). She will be a big threat when she returns to face her old side and will be eager to spoil United’s party.
United only lost one of their 11 WSL home games in 2024 (W7 D3) with only Chelsea (six), Arsenal (six) and Manchester City (six) winning more home matches to nil than Marc Skinner’s side (five) last year in the top-flight.
The supercomputer is also confident United will come out on top with a 73.3% chance of victory to round of the weekend’s action. The Seagulls come out of the calculations with only an 11.2% chance of the win, with the draw at 15.5%.
